The Hall of Fame and the 90s
This article
does a good job highlighting some of the problems that Hall of Fame voters are going to have in the future. In short, how do you compare the numbers of players who used steroids with the numbers of players who did not? This is especially complicated given that no one knows who used and who didn't. There is a great deal of hope that the Mitchell Report will straighten things out some, but I'm less confidant of that than the writers quoted in the article.
Let's assume that one argues that the top twenty all-time players at each position should be in the running for the Hall of Fame. Players in a sense compete with other players from their own era and with players from other eras to get in. What concerns me is that there will be a player who posts slightly better numbers with the help of steroids than a player who does not use steroids and that the secret steroid user will get in over the more deserving non-steroid user. (For an example, think of Mark McGwire v. Frank Thomas. Or, better and more slanderously, a certain Astro 1B v. Thomas.)
Anyway, I made an inclusive list of players from the 90s who are possible contenders for the Hall (some will have to post a few more good years to make it, but it's fun to guess). Let me know if I missed anyone and who you would vote for:
C: Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, Posada
1B: McGwire, Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Palmeiro, McGriff, Delgado, Thome, Helton, Giambi
2B: Biggio, Alomar, Kent
3B: Chipper Jones, Matt Williams, E. Martinez, Ventura
SS: Ripken, ARod, Jeter, Tejada, Larkin, Garciaparra
LF: Bonds, Henderson, Manny Ramirez, Raines, Albert Belle
CF: Griffey, Jr., Bernie Williams, Lofton, Andruw Jones
RF: Gwynn, Sosa, Sheffield, Ichiro, Canseco, Larry Walker, Vlad Guerrero, Juan Gonzalez
SP: Clemens, Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Glavine, Mussina, Schilling, Smoltz, Kevin Brown, Cone, Pettitte
RP: Rivera, Hoffman, Billy Wagner
posted by JonM @ 2:17 PM
5 comments
5 Comments:
I'm surprised that there hasn't been more high-profile discussion of this. That may come as HoF voting time draws nearer.
At the risk of falling back into a curmudeonly "in my day..." rant, I will state that if I were voting I would have a hard time ignoring the steroid taint of players in this era. Hmmm. That could be read as having a double meaning.
Anyway, even before the s-word started floating around, I had a hard time garnering any enthusiasm for a lot of the players on JonM's list, particularly the obvious or likely steroid cases: McGwire, Sosa, Canseco, Juan Gon, etc.
Where I think it gets particularly interesting is with the pitchers. Some have been implicated as being users, true, but the ones who likely are/will be perceived as clean--and here I am thinking about Mariano Rivera--really have to be looked at in a new light, given what they were able to overcome to succeed in an era of tiny ballparks and juiced players.
But as to JonM's list, I would consider HoF votes for the following:
3B: E. Martinez
SS: Ripken, Larkin
LF: Henderson, Raines
CF: Andruw Jones
RF: Gwynn
SP: Clemens, Maddux, Pedro Martinez
RP: Rivera
Wom, jmons is certainly a small Hall guy. No Piazza?
Anyway, I guess that I'm a relatively big Hall guy. I think that the number of players from each era in the Hall should be roughly commensurate (with an accounting made against obvious mistakes).
For the purpose of argument, assuming that steroids never existed, I'll tell you which names from my original list that I would NOT put in:
(nm) by a name indicates that the player needs a few more good seasons, but would make it if they get those seasons
C: Posada
1B: Delgado (nm), Thome (nm), Helton, Giambi
2B:
3B: Matt Williams, Ventura
SS: Tejada, Garciaparra
LF: Albert Belle
CF: Bernie Williams, Lofton, Andruw Jones (nm)
RF: Sheffield, Ichiro (nm), Canseco, Larry Walker, Vlad Guerrero (nm), Juan Gonzalez
SP: Schilling (nm), Smoltz, Kevin Brown, Cone, Pettitte
RP: Billy Wagner
I am a "small Hall" guy, but the Piazza omission was an oversight.
I struggled with Vlad and Ichiro. It would be more "accrit" (as Joe Morgan would say) to list me as "skeptical, but will be happy to reassess at the end of their careers" regarding these two. You can throw Schilling into that pile, too.
There are about 230 players in the Hall of Fame; I'm not counting executives, managers, etc. Given some discounting of nineteenth century players, that leaves about 25 spots per decade for players.
Here then is my list of 26 players (Players in brackets have accomplishments grounded more in the 80s and players in parentheses have steroid-related concerns):
C: Piazza, (Ivan Rodriguez)
1B: (McGwire), (Bagwell), Frank Thomas, (Palmeiro)
2B: (Biggio), Alomar, Kent
3B: Chipper Jones
SS: [Ripken], ARod, Jeter, Larkin
LF: (Bonds), [Henderson], Manny Ramirez, [Raines]
CF: Griffey, Jr.
RF: [Gwynn], (Sosa),
SP: Clemens, Maddux, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Glavine, Mussina, Schilling
RP: Rivera, Hoffman
As much as I hate the guy, Schilling is a hall-of-famer in my book. It's true that he never won a Cy Young but he had several seasons in which he was second to the likes of Randy Johnson. I don't have his stats in front of me, but I believe he'll finish his career with 200+ wins and 3000+ K's. What will put him over the top, however, are his postseason heroics. Everybody remembers '04 and '01 of course, but how about his performance with the '93 Phillies?
While I'm thinking about the Red Sox, it's hard to argue against Manny. He's been a consistent offensive force for 10+ years, piling up some monster numbers. I've never seen his name linked to the steroid controversy.
Among current Yankees, Jeter, ARod, Johnson and Rivera will all make it. Williams will fall short, despite a batting title and some pretty good career numbers. Sheffield is a tough call, because he's had a big impact on a lot of teams, but like Giambi, the steroids business will haunt him.
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